March 21, 2020
A Tale of Two Charts
Vox’s chart this morning showing the progression in newly diagnosed Covid-19 cases in Italy and the U.S. is instructive. Italy appears to be about two weeks ahead of the U.S. Following the Italian experience, the exponentially rising curve of U.S. cases yields a frighteningly high number two weeks from now. There’s no reason to believe that the U.S. containment efforts are more efficient than those in Italy. The worst is yet to come and it’s coming faster than it has been.