Republican Prospects for Retaking the White House in 2024

Conservative lawyer George Conway estimates that about ten percent of Republicans, like him, are “never Trumpers” — they would never vote for Trump under any circumstances. About forty percent are members of the MAGA cult, deluded or perverse individuals who are devoted to Trump. These people would be outraged if Trump isn’t the GOP presidential nominee in 2024. The other fifty percent have varying views about Trump, but are alike in that they would support the Republican nominee regardless of whether it’s Trump or someone else. Given this dynamic, if the Republican nominee is Trump, at least ten percent — and that number is more likely to grow than to shrink — will either not vote or will vote for the Democratic candidate, a defection large enough to doom Republican hopes of retaking the White House. If the Republican nominee isn’t Trump, the defection of Trump devotees — members of the MAGA cult — will have the same effect. There will have to be a major shift in circumstances if Republicans are to win the presidency in 2024. It seems, however, that major shifts in circumstances are becoming increasingly frequent.